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| 131st Candidates Coming out of the Woodwork |
By: Aaron E. Wicks
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Posted: Wednesday, January 20, 2010 8:42 pm
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Rochester, NY (January 21, 2010) -- As the early posturing begins, Smugtown elites are already beginning to take sides -- informally, if not publicly. Here's the latest (part speculation, part solid background information):
Carla Palumbo
Palumbo is the Democrats' dream candidate, in many ways. A female, she can defend the claim that John's 131st District seat is a "woman's seat." Palumbo has been elected to the 28th LD seat in the County legislature and is currently representing the Northwest District on City Council. Though Palumbo has accumulated a fairly unimpressive record as a legislator and representative, she has wheeled and dealed (or should it be "wheelt and dealt"?) for years as a member of the Democratic Party and holds a number of cards to play in this race. First, she can win in the Northwest and would likely do well in other parts of the city. She has roots in the town of Chili, a huge asset in a district that has a large suburban voting population in November (though note that this is far less of an advantage in the September primary). This has translated into what is likely to be a deluge of insider support. For example, Election Commissioner Tom Ferrarese, a longtime party strategist with roots in the northwest, has indicated privately that he has already picked a candidate and the strong speculation is that he will be backing Palumbo. If this is true, it signifies that party insiders might be falling into line behind Palumbo at this very early stage.
Willa Powell
Willa Powell has never shied from a good political fight, taking on Joe Robach for his Senate seat in 2006 and turning back efforts by Mayor Robert Duffy to unseat her from her School Board position (disclosure: this author was Treasurer of Powell's Senate campaign, resigning the post in 2008). Powell has a profile that also serves her well in the district: good credibility on city issues, but also an ability to articulate the broader issues that are relevant to an Assemblymember. Both Palumbo and Powell are smart and experienced, but the insider support will clearly favor Palumbo. Powell, though, is unmoved by such odds. As noted above, she has endured previous efforts by party insiders to manipulate her out of a job. She will not be deterred by such threats. She could also reasonably figure that in a primary, a woman vs. woman contest might negate some of Palumbo's advantages (and Powell's for that matter) and instead shift the debate to policy, an area where Powell can certainly hold her own. But such a race will also make money a significant variable, and a betting man would assume that Palumbo will outraise Powell early, attracting even more support from a Democratic State Campaign Committee bent on holding this seat in what might be a tough year for Democrats.
Malik Evans
The early word on Evans is that he is in all the way -- potentially even skipping the party's designation process and taking his case straight to the voters (a wise move as the designation process has become a bit of a joke among Democratic insiders -- even average committee members know the fix is in). Evans could face a very intriguing primary situation: in a three-way primary with Palumbo and Powell, Evans could very reasonably build a base among African American voters and attract the votes of other Democrats who might find the Powell-Palumbo focus on gender a bit insulting (if, indeed, they take that approach). Complicating things -- and potentially playing right into Evans' hands -- is the possibility of one or more statewide primaries that might motivate African American voters to turn out in disproportionately large numbers. First is the gubernatorial primary where it i expected that Gov. David Paterson will defend his seat against a very strong challenge by Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. If Cuomo locks up the support of local political elites, Evans could play this to his advantage -- a nice move in a year when insider endorsements might be of little help -- and might even hurt some candidates. The second potential contest, a longer shot, is a primary of Sen. Kirstin Gillibrand by former Memphis Congressman Harold Ford. Ford, who moved to New York several years ago after losing a Senate race in Tennessee, has developed a network in the new York City financial community and has proved himself an articulate and fairly skilled campaigner (though he was undone in Tennessee by a smear campaign that implied he was a philanderer). Ford has a number of challenges, but should he run, his campaign and that of Paterson could swell the ranks of African American voters -- particularly in a year when the word on the street is that Republicans are looking to turn back the Obama tide.
The downside of the Evans candidacy is that as tantalizing as it might be in a primary, it grows less attractive in the general election, where the electorate will be whiter, more conservative and less city-focused. In addition, Evans has not yet found his voice on issues of statewide reform and other issues likely to come before the Assembly. He certainly has plenty of time to do so, but unless he can find a way to display his electability in Chili, the political and moneyed interests in the party are going to remain very skeptical of his chances in November -- especially if his opponent is moderate Democrat-turned-Republican Chili Supervisor David Dunning.
The Truth About Harry...
Where does all this leave Harry Bronson? Yesterday he was the strong heir-apparent -- leader of the Democratic caucus in the County legislature, for Pete's sake. Consider this scenario:
Bronson has to ask if a liberal gay male from the city can win this seat, given the district lines. He -- and many of his advisors -- are likely to say "probably not." However, the god news for Bronson is that this is the last year such a district will exist. After redistricting in 2011, a new district will emerge. The ideal district would be one that looks a lot like Joe Morelle's current district: plenty of liberal voters in Brighton, a swath of southeast Rochester (again, liberals galore) and a smattering of other parts of the city or suburbs (perhaps south to Henrietta, perhaps north to Irondequoit). But there's a problem: Morelle. This is where a bit of precedent is instructive: the highest number of Congressional retirements occur in years that end in "2". Why? Because when Congressional district lines are redrawn, a number of senior Congressmembers look at having to run in a "new" district and decide to retire rather than start all over again. Louise Slaughter will be making just such a decision in 2012. With Upstate likely to lose a seat, her race could become harder. She retires, Morelle announces -- fulfilling his lifelong dream of serving in Congress -- and Bronson then fills his seat in the newly-opened eastside Assembly district.
Bet money on it: Bronson will sit out this year, either by choice or through "persuasion." He will roll the dice that 2012 offers better opportunities than 2010. By backing Palumbo, he further solidifies his insider support, making the 2012 move almost a certainty.
If things continue at this rate, Monroe County Dems will have all their nominees for the next 6 years identified by the end of February....
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Member Opinions:
By: wny131 on 1/22/10
Redistricting can't happen soon enough for this resident of the 131st hinterlands. A few years ago I couldn't believe that Mike Slattery could loose to Susan John, that is until I looked at the map. The way the 131st has been gerrymandered/rigged to exclude the voice of us folks in the towns is revolting. Given the sad condition of our State the last thing we need are more "Downtown Liberals" in Albany. Oh well. Bruce Quimby Rochester, New York
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