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| Does Gumina Switch Signal Sinking Dem Ship? |
By: Aaron E. Wicks
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Posted: Monday, February 8, 2010 12:24 pm
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Rochester, NY (February 8, 2010) -- For Democrats who remember the election of 1994, the election of 2010 is starting to feel awfully similar. In both years, voters were palpably angry and ornery; Democrats were saddled with (fairly or not) a reputation for policymaking incompetence and over-reaching (both times due to health care reform); and every political sign looked ominous. This year, the loss of the Massachusetts seat to Republican was enough to make even New York Senator Chuck Schumer begin dodging microphones. But will national trends matter at the local level? Will Rochester and Monroe County see any impact from what could be a Democratic meltdown?
Ask Carmen Gumina. The County Legislator from Webster and principal of State Road Elementary School has recently switched parties from Democrat to Republican. First elected in 2007 in a crop of moderate, reform-oriented Democrats, candidates like Gumina appeared to be the future of the Democratic Party in Monroe County. Although the party reliably holds 10-12 seats in the city of Rochester and Brighton, the only way to reach a 15 seat majority in the Legislature is to cultivate a strong team of suburban legislators who can forge alliances between Democrats in the suburbs (often in the minority) and a fairly large block of independent voters that can often swing to either side. Gumina's switch could either be a minor blip on that path -- or could indicate the Democrats' suburban strategy is in serious trouble.
The Case for Concern
Why should Democrats read something deeper in the Gumina switch? After all, why should one man's ideological evolution (or political opportunism) suggest that there is anything amiss for Democrats? Consider the following:
* 2009 was supposed to be an ideal year for Democrats to make a successful push for a County Legislature majority. With people like Gumina and Dick Beebe successfully colonizing the suburbs in 2007, Democrats needed to pick up only one more seat for control. But despite recruiting strong candidates like Nora Bredes in Perinton and Mark Coon in North Greece, Democrats missed an opportunity in their most fertile ground: Henrietta. There, Michael Condello, a first-time candidate, ran admirably, but still fell short in a district that is clearly trending Democratic. Gumina's switch puts Dems' goals in 2011 that much more out of reach.
* The Monroe County suburban trend continues to be away from the Democrats: In Chili, Supervisor David Dunning made the same switch in 2008 (successfully fending off a Republican primary in 2009) and both Irondequoit and Mendon went Republican as a result of the 2009 election (though note that Moe Bickwheat, the former Democratic Supervisor of Mendon was elected to the Town Council). And in Greece, where scandals rocked the town virtually every week, even a reform-minded moderate Democrat could not pull out the victory. Over the long-term, demographics probably benefit Democrats as wealth continues to move away and the suburbs become more racially and economically diverse -- but how long can Democrats wait?
* 2010 is shaping up to be a year that will stretch Democrats' resources thin. The 131st Assembly District seat might have a special election, a primary and a general election -- all of which will certainly be contested. Unless he changes his mind, Gov. David Paterson will press on against an almost certain challenge from Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. And on the Senate side, Sen. Kirstin Gillibrand is still waiting to find out if former Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. will challenge her. This is the scenario establishment Democrats dread: divisive intra-party battles that drain resources and play into the hands of Republican challengers.
The Case for Calm
Before Democrats turn alarmist -- and the Beacon wishes to distance itself from the typical media strategy of hyping isolated events as examples the sky is falling (though it is awfully tempting -- see headline) -- there are several reasons to believe that the Gumina switch is indicative of little more than a strategic decision by one man. Consider:
* Gumina represents most of the town of Webster. In 2008, when the Monroe County suburbs gave a majority of their vote to Barack Obama, Webster went -- just barely -- for McCain. The fact is, Gumina represents a Republican town. While he no doubt has personal qualities that appeal to voters irrespective of party, he will find it easier to represent a Republican district as a Republican in a Republican-controlled chamber. That is not doom for the Democrats, it is a pretty basic principle that sways politicians rather frequently.
* The 2008 election clearly demonstrated that Monroe County's suburbs are quite moderate, and winnable for Democrats under reasonably favorable circumstances. Obama won majorities in the usual places (the city of Rochester, Brighton, East Rochester), but also won majorities in the towns of Gates, Henrietta, Irondequoit, all three eastern "P" towns (Penfield, Perinton, Pittsford) and Sweden. When Democrats can run as principled agents for positive change, they can win in these towns. The challenge for local Democrats, however, is to find a way to communicate the need for local change. Despite several examples of less-than-transparent governance (the Public Defender selection process, sweetheart real estate deals for political donors, poor performance by COMIDA, manipulation of the budget process to reduce public scrutiny of County finances), the Republican majority has managed to avoid making the types of bonehead mistakes that anger votes. Democrats can make an excellent case for the need for reform in the County legislature, but they simply have not yet found a way to break through to voters. But make no mistake: the voters are there.
* The 2010 election will be combustible and unpredictable -- and that poses opportunities for both parties. With Susan John's retirement, a new crop of candidates, including Harry Bronson, Willa Powell and Malik Evans, might emerge, with one breaking through. Other potential primaries in local races might drain resources -- but might also force candidates to hone their message in a year when "routine" campaigns will not suffice. In other words, Democrats can capitalize on the chaos that is predicted by following the direction of their leader, President Obama. Rather than retrench, ruminate, self-flagellate, Democrats can use the election as an opportunity to call the Republican bluff. It's a risky strategy, but it shows political courage -- and that might be one thing voters need to see this year: candidates with some courage and integrity. In that context, the Gumina switch means nothing -- Democrats have bigger fish to fry.
One thing appears to be certain: if local Democrats use the same strategies, they are likely to suffer the same results. Despite the groundhog's prediction of six more frigid winter weeks, there is sign of a spring resurgence among some local Democrats. The potentially crowded field in 131, the willingness to challenge Mayor Robert Duffy and Assemblyman David Gantt on mayoral control and restlessness in the Democratic committees all bode well for a different type of politics in the party.
The Gumina switch provides one sure lesson for Democrats: voters support authentic leaders, people they know and trust. Gumina has deep roots in Webster and has clearly developed a network of friends and neighbors who care little about what letter follows his name (incidentally, the Monroe County Legislature website has already changed his letter -- quick work guys!). When Democrats recruit candidates like these, they win. When they instead focus on political favors, nepotism, cliqueism or who appears to be the best fundraiser, they lose -- Republicans beat them at that game virtually every time. Gumina is a valuable addition to the Republican caucus -- but there are others like him out there in every town across the County. And when Democrats can shed some of their political baggage, they might find that people like Gumina actually want to join THEM.
Aaron E. Wicks
Rochester, NY
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