Rochester, NY (January 28, 2013) -- They say at ballgames that you can’t know the players without a scorecard. Rochester’s political players do not change frequently, but 2013 may be a watershed year in terms of what positions these players occupy.

Consider what is on the line:
- The office of mayor is up for election -- Mayor Thomas Richards has not said he is NOT running, but neither has he clearly announced his intention to seek re-election. The clock is ticking on such a decision. Loudly.
- The five at-large seats on City Council are up. But some members may compete for mayor, depending on Richards’ decision.
- Three School Board positions are up. These races are usually competitive as they serve as an entry point to elected office for city Democrats.
- Mayoral control legislation has been re-introduced in Albany -- in a legislature that is far more “machine-like” in its operation.
- The chairmanship of the Monroe County Democratic Party may change hands.



In short, Democrats could face some major upheavals. Some existing alliances could shift and control of party institutions could become a major bone of contention.



The main prize: Mayor
What drives much of the political machinating this year is the fact that Rochester will elect (or re-elect) a mayor this year. Entering February, time is running short for those interested in seeking the post -- but all are looking at the current mayor. Richards has sent mixed signals. He clearly does not relish the political side of the office. He is an executive and a manager. His motto has been “focus and finish” -- not the type of rallying cry that would drive a re-election campaign. Astute political observers, like 13 WHAM’s Rachel Barnhart, have watched his actions closely and have wondered aloud if he will run. Generally speaking, one does not kick off their re-election campaign in midst of speculation about their possibly not running.

On the other hand, Richards strategy might be to wait until the latest possible moment to declare his candidacy. The logic is fairly simple: while he is an incumbent, he may not have the same support he had two years ago. Back then, the Gantt-Morelle axis -- always a marriage of convenience -- backed Richards in order to keep a lid on the Special Election process. That was relatively easy to do with no primary option. This year, however, there is the possibility of a primary -- and candidates are free to enter a primary at will. Richards may be waiting to see what potential challengers emerge. Then he can decide whether the field is one he can handle.

Potential mayoral candidates lurk right down the hall from Richards at 30 Church Street. Councilmember Loretta Scott was a strong vote-getter in a crowded field in 2009 and has years of City Hall experience. Councilmember Dana Miller is widely recognized as an intelligent and moderate voice on Council. He has a background that would make him a strong candidate in all parts of the city. But the main person to watch is City Council President, Lovely Warren.

Warren has many assets: as City Council president she can claim a measure of rank over he colleagues. She has been a longtime protégé of Assemblymember David Gantt, but has demonstrated that she is a capable political actor in her own right. This could be a liability in some quarters, but her relationship with Gantt has more positives than negatives for her politically -- she will not be apologizing, in any way, for having worked closely with him. But one of her strongest assets is the personal contrast she would bring next to Richards. Warren is the prototypical “favorite daughter” candidate: born and raised in Rochester with many family connections, Warren worked her way through college and law school -- suffered a setback in her first political contest -- but came back humbler and wiser.

Warren is tough to run against. I worked with Jim Bowers in his Northeast District Council campaign against Warren in 2007. The challenge in running against Warren was precisely the story described above: she was well-liked (by many) and had no particular blemish on her record -- aside from the Gantt connection which, for many, was no liability at all. She defeated Bowers, a former School Board Commissioner by more than two-to-one. If I were, say, an older white male with a weakness in describing my vision or the future, I would think twice about just how I would defeat a candidate like her in a primary.

Morelle and his many hats
You may want to have a second look at the person checking your gas and electric meters this month -- it could be Joe Morelle. He currently chairs the Monroe County Democratic Committee, he is a full time member of the Assembly, he has recently been appointed Majority Leader of the Democratic majority in the Assembly and he is the father of a potential new member of the County Legislature. Who knows how many other side jobs he may be working. Add to the list patiently waiting for Louise Slaughter’s Congressional seat to become available.

Kidding aside, Morelle’s appointment as Majority Leader is a major responsibility. It is going to challenge his ability to effectively chair the local committee -- and it may be the last straw for those who have felt that Morelle’s leadership has not exactly generated a Democratic Renaissance in the County (repeated failures to capture a County Leg majority and no serious contention of the County Executive office). If Morelle leaves, vacant party leadership will provide an opportunity for a significant symbolic battle for control of the party. Old factions (Gantt versus the anti-Gantt insiders versus the reformers) could emerge.

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City Council and School Board control to shift?
Five council seats -- a majority of the body -- are up this year, as are three of the seven School Board seats. On the Council side, most of the candidates are strong vote getters: Loretta Scott, Dana Miller and Carolee Conklin are likely to sail to re-election should they choose to run. Jackie Ortiz and Matt Haag are newer to the scene -- there staying power would get its first true test this year.

On the School Board side, Van White should easily win re-election should he choose it; White is not allied with Gantt and might consider a mayoral bid, creating an opening on the Board. Jose Cruz and Cynthia Elliott are also up -- Cruz ran solidly in 2009, but Elliott narrowly squeaked by Nancy Sung Shelton for her spot that year. Shelton appears to be planning a run for office this year -- the second time could be the charm.

Looming over both races is both the mayoral contest (which could attract some of the above-mentioned members, like Miller and White) as well as the issue of mayoral control, which has once again been revived in Albany. This is yet another point where Assemblymember David Gantt becomes a key player.

Mayoral Control... part ?
Mayoral control has not been in the news for a while -- largely owing to Mayor Thomas Richards throwing cold water on the idea early in his tenure. While not ruling it out, Richards clearly stated that it was not a priority for him. That signaled fence-sitters in Albany, like Sen. Joe Robach, that there would likely be no political fallout if they did not push the measure.

But a new mayor -- or at least a new mayoral candidate -- could change that dynamic. Although the reports of Gantt’s reintroduction of the mayoral control legislation was greeted with yawns by the local media, there is reason to be more inquisitive. Gantt is not the type of politician to waste his own time. Granted, introducing bills is pretty effortless, it is simply not Gantt’s style to do anything without reason. Gantt clearly favors mayoral control. His introduction of the legislation might be intended to put the issue back on the agenda to (in his view) benefit candidates he favors. 



Consider a Lovely Warren primary of Thomas Richards: Warren comes out for mayoral control and questions why Richards has not pushed for more reform in the school district. The issue damages Richards on two fronts: one, it reminds voters that he is not demographically representative of most of the students in the district (begging the question, “could someone like him really care as much as district parents?”) and two, it reminds voters that he has not offered a major vision of change for the city. Whether for or against mayoral control, the issue brings to the fore the future of the city. Richards stated position on it has been somewhat middling -- he would have a lot of difficulty taking a credible position on the issue either way at this point.

So, Rochester Democrats, you could have a new party leader, a new mayor and some shuffling of the deck on Council and the School Board. Indeed, the relationship between the school district and the city could hang in the balance.      

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